The potential alliance was expected to have political ramifications and reshape community equations. The SNDP Yogam represents the Ezhava caste, a numerically strong backward community, while the NSS represents the forward Nair community, comprising around 12-15% of Kerala’s population.

This development is also significant with the ruling Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) aggressively trying to woo Hindu communities. The front suffered a debacle in the recently concluded local body polls.

Tensions between NSS and SNDP Yogam in the past

The two organisations have maintained a fractured relationship, disagreeing on several issues, chiefly reservation. However, there have been many attempts to bring the two outfits together.

NSS-SNDP first came together in December 1950, launching the Hindu Mahamandalam. This alliance soon fell apart over disagreements over the Travancore Devaswom Board presidency.

In 2012, a Grand Hindu Alliance was forged between the two organisations, but collapsed two years later over the proposed Devaswom Board Recruitment Board.

According to Dalit scholar and political analyst T S Syamkumar, a concrete alliance is neither possible nor sustainable because both organisations have different interests. “For example, SNDP, representing a backward community, has always advocated for a caste census whilst NSS has always been against it,” Syamkumar notes.

What prompted the recent alliance talks?

According to political analyst and advocate A Jayashankar, both organisations have historically feared the Indian Union Muslim League’s (IUML) perceived dominance within the opposition Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), and alleged minority appeasement by Congress.

“In 2012, under the then UDF regime, a controversy arose when the Muslim League demanded a fifth cabinet position for member M S Ali. The then Chief Minister Oommen Chandy obliged. This move led to a perception among the majority Hindu community that they were being neglected and that minority communities held ‘hegemony’ in Kerala politics. This feeling was spearheaded and inflamed by the leadership of the NSS and SNDP Yogam,” Jayashankar told The Indian Express.

NSS might have considered joining hands with SNDP Yogam to keep the Muslim League at bay, he adds. The unity talks came amid Natesan stressing SNDP’s vision of unity from Nayadi (a marginalised community) to Nasrani (Christian) to Namboothiri communities, excluding Muslims. He also expressed strong displeasure with the “communal politics” of the IUML, Jayashankar opined.

So why did NSS step back?

Sukumaran Nair said that NSS doubted the political intent behind sending Natesan’s son and National Democratic Alliance (NDA) constituent Bharath Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS) national president, Thushar Vellapally, to lead the talks.

Syamkumar said that the alliance would have created an impression of NSS being in cahoots with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). This would have harmed the NSS’s bargaining power with both the LDF and UDF fronts.

“NSS is not an all-India organisation and has always maintained equidistance from all political parties. It would work against their interests if they were seen working closely alongside the BJP in the state,” Syamkumar said. “There are around 10 members from the Nair community in the LDF cabinet, so there’s nothing new they could possibly gain from entering into an alliance with SNDP Yogam,” he added.

Who could benefit from an NSS-SNDP alliance?

The BJP stands to gain from a united NSS-SNDP front, as it will help fuel anti-Muslim sentiments in the long run, says Jayashankar. While UDF and LDF trod a cautious line by not welcoming the initially proposed unity pact, the BJP welcomed it. BJP state chief Rajeev Chandrasekhar termed it as a strong response to UDF’s attempt to legitimise “Islamist organisations” in the state.

In recent years, the BJP has made inroads into the Nair community, which has always been politically flexible and known to shift allegiance between Congress and the BJP, Jayashankar said.

Meanwhile, the Ezhava vote bank, the LDF’s major support base, has been shifting towards the BJP since 2016. This shift followed the formation of BDJS in late 2015. A CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey noted that 32 per cent of Ezhava voters supported the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, a jump from 23 per cent in the 2021 assembly polls.

The recent local body polls witnessed a similar trend. The BJP captured several Ezhava-dominated areas and traditional LDF strongholds, while the BJP-led NDA won 50 of the 101 Corporation seats in Thiruvananthapuram.

“The Ezhava community, traditionally an LDF vote bank with a sizeable minority supporting the UDF, is shifting its second-option votes away from Congress towards the BJP,” says Jayashankar.

Limited impact on existing political equations

Syamkumar notes that an NSS-SNDP alliance would have minimal impact on the LDF. The ruling front has been grappling with challenges, including anti-incumbency and erosion of its core vote bank. He added that a united Hindu front won’t suffice to overcome the troubles haunting the government.

The LDF leadership has also denied claims that the NSS-SNDP alliance was part of the CPI(M)’s attempt to consolidate Hindu votes. Interestingly, the Sabarimala Global Ayyappa Sangamam held last September, organised by the ruling LDF, was endorsed by both the NSS and SNDP Yogam. This was widely viewed as the result of the government’s outreach efforts.

Syamkumar notes that the LDF lacks a proper recalibration strategy to win back the trust of the Ezhava community. “When Natesan made anti-Muslim comments recently, the ruling CPI(M) did not take a stand against it. CPI(M) have also started critiquing Muslim organisations such as the Jamaat-e-Islami and accusing them of communalisation. However, these are short-term and unsustainable strategies to woo the community,” Syamkumar said.

According to Jayashankar, Nair community members are not “ideological or political slaves” to their leaders. Therefore, even an NSS-SNDP alliance wouldn’t automatically guarantee a vote shift to any particular political front, he noted.