Behind the heavy wooden doors of the Sistine Chapel, the process to elect the successor to the late Pope Francis will begin on Wednesday afternoon. All 133 cardinals eligible to vote in the secretive conclave have arrived in Rome, and will determine the fate of the Catholic Church and its 1.4 billion followers.
The term “conclave”, derived from the Latin phrase cum clave meaning “with key,” highlights the locked-door setting of the papal election. By Wednesday morning, the cardinal electors will be ensconced within the Vatican, stripped of all communication devices and isolated from the outside world.
The cardinals will take a solemn oath of absolute secrecy, barring contact with individuals beyond the walls of the Apostolic Palace for the duration of the conclave. Phones, newspapers, television, letters, and messages are all prohibited.
As a further measure to safeguard the integrity of the process, the Sistine Chapel will undergo thorough sweeps for any listening devices both before and during the conclave. The Vatican has also announced a temporary shutdown of mobile phone signals within the city-state.
THE CONCLAVE
The conclave will begin with a morning Mass at St Peter’s Basilica, followed by the cardinals’ procession into the Sistine Chapel later in the day. Once the words extra omnes are declared — ordering all but essential personnel to leave — the chapel’s doors will be locked, sealing the electors off from the outside world until a new pope is chosen.
Deliberations and voting will then proceed, with ballots typically cast twice daily, in the morning and afternoon. This process will continue until one candidate secures the necessary two-thirds majority of the votes. Throughout the conclave, the cardinals will reside and dine at the Casa Santa Marta, which was also home to Pope Francis for the past twelve years.
The election process involves multiple rounds of voting. If no candidate achieves the required two-thirds majority in a given round, the ballots are collected and burned.
The outcome of each voting session is communicated to the outside world through colour-coded signals: black smoke emanating from a chimney indicates that no decision has been reached, while white smoke signifies the election of a new pontiff.
Once a candidate garners the necessary majority, formal procedures will unfold swiftly. The dean of the College of Cardinals will approach the elected individual and ask if he accepts the responsibility of the papacy.
Upon acceptance, the new pope selects a papal name, dons the white cassock, and is introduced to the world from the balcony of St Peter’s Basilica with the traditional announcement: Habemus papam — “We have a pope.”
THE CARDINALS
Currently, 135 cardinals under the age of 80 are eligible to participate in the conclave. These electors hail from 71 different countries, making this the most geographically diverse College of Cardinals in history.
However, two cardinals have formally notified the Holy See of their inability to attend due to health reasons, reducing the number of participants entering the Sistine Chapel to 133.
The nations with the largest representation among the electors are Italy (17), the United States (10), Brazil (7), France and Spain (5 each), and Argentina, Canada, India, Poland, and Portugal (4 each).
The expansion and increasing diversity of the College of Cardinals in recent years have led some Vatican observers to anticipate the upcoming conclave will be drawn out.
While some cardinals, especially from Asia and Africa, hold more conservative views on issues such as same-sex relationships and women’s roles in the Church, others from Latin America and Europe lean more progressive. Current geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, are also expected to shape discussions.
As a result, forging consensus within such a diverse group is expected to be challenging.
THE CONTENDERS
While the Vatican does not officially recognise candidates for the papacy, several cardinals are often said to be “papabile”, or possessing the perceived qualities necessary to become pope. These include:
Cardinal Luis Tagle (Philippines)
The 67-year-old pro-prefect for the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples is in the running to be the first Asian pope.
Known as the “Asian Francis” for his missionary zeal and focus on the poor and marginalised, he is also seen as welcoming to LGBTQ+ and divorced and remarried Catholics.
His communication skills and teaching abilities are considered key assets, though his tenure leading Caritas Internationalis faced scrutiny regarding management.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy)
At 70, the Vatican’s secretary of state is a seasoned diplomat who has navigated Vatican politics effectively. Regarded as a moderate with a progressive global vision, he is respected for his diplomatic skills and played a key role in mediating the 2014 US-Cuba detente.
His election would mark a return to an Italian papacy after three non-Italian pontiffs.
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo (Congo)
The 65-year-old archbishop of Kinshasa is seen as a supporter of orthodoxy, defending priestly celibacy and traditional church teachings. Ambongo is also a strong advocate for social justice and a vocal critic of the Congolese government.
In 2024, he led African bishops in dissenting from Pope Francis’s declaration allowing blessings for same-sex couples.
His election would make him the first African pope in over 1,500 years.
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy)
The 69-year-old archbishop of Bologna and president of the Italian bishops conference is known as a “street priest” with a desire for a more modern and listening church.
Inclusive of same-sex couples and people of different faiths, Zuppi was chosen by Pope Francis as an envoy for peace in Russia, Ukraine, the West Bank, and Beijing.
Cardinal Peter Erdo (Hungary)
The 72-year-old archbishop of Budapest is a respected theologian and scholar considered a leading conservative contender.
Cardinal Erdo supports the pope’s outreach to Orthodox Christians but holds traditional views on same-sex unions and communion for remarried Catholics.
While conservative, he is also respected by liberals, which could make him a unifying figure for the Catholic Church.
While there is no official frontrunner, the conclave’s outcome remains wide open. The longest papal conclave in recent history was in 1922, lasting five days before a new leader was chosen. While observers say this election won’t be as long, it is expected to be unpredictable and full of intrigue.
With inputs from Agencies
