Grocers are losing out on substantial sales in the produce department because they are missing opportunities to promote fruits and vegetables among specific groups of consumers, according to a report released last month by Circana.
Produce sales are expected to rise at a year-over-year rate of about 2% in 2026, with fresh fruit sales likely to outpace overall sales for the category, data from the research firm show. But that growth would likely be higher if the industry took steps to counter the deluge of messages shoppers are receiving about other foods, including snacks and sweets, said Jonna Parker, Circana’s vice president of fresh foods.
Across most grocery departments, average retail prices are up between 30% and 40% since 2019, said Parker. Meanwhile, produce is up by about 18% per pound on average during the same period — and some items cost less now than they did seven years ago, Parker added.
Yet despite the fact that produce prices have risen relatively slowly compared with prices for other foods, demand for fresh fruits and vegetables is growing at a surprisingly slow pace, she said.
The growth trajectory for produce this year “pretty much puts it at par for total retail food and beverage sales, which honestly was the shocking news,” Parker said in an interview.
“The biggest difference between the produce industry and the other parts of the grocery store [is that it isn’t] keeping up with the way consumers want to demand and discover food today,” she added.
Many retailers use price to set their produce selections apart and promote the fact that they offer the “freshest” fruits and vegetables, but those qualities don’t adequately set them apart, Parker said.
“I’m sure you stand for something in other aisles, other than the freshest and the cheapest. And that’s where the word differentiation comes into play,” she said.
Parker noted that in categories like wine, cheese or bottled water, retailers and suppliers highlight product diversity and market different brands to specific groups. For example, while retailers take advantage of the fact that Liquid Death water tends to attract men while Poppi prebiotic soda appeals to women, she said, they do not typically segment how they market apples, even though that fruit comes in many varieties.
Grocers aren’t doing enough to merchandise produce in “micro segments,” Parker said.
“Too often in produce, we don’t consider the consumer. We innovate based on science. There are some amazing flavor innovations, growing innovations, and picking innovations. But those aren’t consumer conversations. Those are supply chain conversations,” she said.
That disparity underscores the opportunity for grocers to boost produce sales by helping shoppers navigate choices, Parker added.
“There are now 65 different varieties of apples that we code at the subcategory level. How could someone find which apple is for them?” Parker said. “It’s hard to then figure out which one you want. But think about wine. Imagine if wine had three choices.”
Another factor playing out in the produce space is that traditional supermarkets have lost market share over the last five years to retailers such as Whole Foods Market, The Fresh Market and Walmart. Conventional grocers accounted for only about 40% of fresh fruit and vegetable sales in 2025, according to Circana.
“Fresh produce is kind of table stakes now,” said Parker, citing findings from a shopper survey Circana conducted. “More than half of Americans now say that Walmart produce is adequate, if not good. So we have to stop thinking only grocers have good produce.”
