The Epstein files painted a picture of a sycophantic Mandelson seeking patronage from a convicted paedophile. Amidst tawdry emails, they include allegations that Mandelson shared market-sensitive information with Epstein at the height of the financial crisis – information that he had received as a cabinet minister in Gordon Brown’s government.

Tellingly, Brown wrote to the cabinet secretary last year seeking an investigation. It seems like nothing really happened. Quite how the vetting process for Mandelson did not spot the red flags remains a mystery. It may have been a calculation that Mandelsonian machinations were what was needed in Washington DC these days. If so, admitting that tactic has backfired would be an understatement.

The old ruse of simply hoping that the media juggernaut will move on has not worked for Starmer. Painting this as a saga of unfortunate decisions guided by his advisors only makes the PM seem weaker. The immediate aftermath has seen the departure of Morgan McSweeney, Starmer’s chief of staff, and Tim Allan, his director of communications. However, the real casualty has been Starmer’s credibility.

Starmer and Labour have made much of their moral high ground in comparison to the “nasty” Tories and the reactionary Reform UK. But with a series of scandals, including the departure of former deputy PM Angela Rayner over a tax matter and this latest saga, it turns out Labour has been no better than their rivals.

Other pitfalls are lurking. A by-election in Gorton and Denton on February 26, triggered by the ill-health of the sitting MP, may prove tricky. Reform UK are poised to make inroads in the “northern wall” constituencies, once the bedrock of Labour.

However, while the backbenchers are restive, there isn’t any compelling challenger in waiting either. The customary “tweets” in support have come out from cabinet members. But local elections in May, which are expected to be desultory for Labour, might mark another moment for reassessing Starmer’s fortunes.

The real issue is also that the government appears to have no strategy for growth. Chancellor Rachel Reeves has piled on costs to employers with rises in their national insurance contributions and hikes to business rates on premises. Increases to the living wage have disincentivised hiring younger staff members, particularly in small and medium enterprises. Meanwhile, the income tax burden has also risen.

Amid this morass, the government has continued to add to welfare costs rather than tighten its purse strings. The truth is that Starmer promised centrism but has so far relied on an old-fashioned Labour tax and spend approach, even though wealth creation and the tax base are shrinking. This is akin to a patient who refuses to face up to a grim diagnosis and avoids the bitter medicine.

Can Starmer reverse the trend? The window to convince the voters is increasingly a narrow one. The reality is that Starmer needs to urgently reset the narrative by offering economic hope to the electorate and being clear about the trade-offs. Sitting on the fence is likely to lead to extinction.

Approaching a tumultuous decade since Brexit, the country has seen five prime ministers exit Downing Street in this period. If Sir Keir is to avoid being the sixth, he needs to double down on incentivising growth while maintaining a fiscal balance. That would truly denote “taking back control”.

Rishabh Bhandari is a London-based lawyer and political commentator