History suggests that the speed of change — not just its scale — determines whether societies adapt smoothly or experience destabilising shocks. AI may test that distinction sooner than policymakers expect.

The question is no longer whether AI will reshape work and economic life. The question is whether countries will have the institutional capacity to absorb that change without widening inequality or social strain. Some of these solutions may not come from countries building the most advanced AI models — but rather, those with the institutional capacity to respond quickly and at scale, such as India, Togo and Brazil.

India’s Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI) — including Aadhaar, UPI, and digital identity systems — represents one of the most ambitious attempts anywhere to build shared economic rails at a national scale. These systems enable secure interactions among citizens, businesses, and government, lowering transaction costs and expanding access to services.

During COVID-19, Togo’s Novissi programme showed how digital identity and mobile payments could deliver cash transfers rapidly to vulnerable populations. Brazil’s Bolsa Família, developed gradually over the years, demonstrated how mature social protection systems can pivot and scale quickly when economic shocks or natural disasters strike.

Across these examples, the lesson is consistent: Countries that invest in delivery systems before crises occur respond faster, more fairly, and with greater public trust when disruption arrives. To be sure, infrastructure alone does not guarantee inclusion. Rural India, home to more than 915 million people — nearly 65 per cent of the population — still experiences uneven adoption. Connectivity gaps, affordability challenges, digital literacy barriers, and issues of trust continue to shape who benefits fully from digital systems and who remains excluded.

Preparedness for an AI-driven economy, therefore, depends not only on technological capability but on design choices: Privacy protections, transparency, accessibility, and systems built around real community needs rather than idealised users.

This is where human institutions matter as much as digital ones.

The Digital Empowerment Foundation’s network of local information entrepreneurs — known as Soochnapreneurs — provides a useful model. These trusted community intermediaries help citizens navigate digital platforms, access services safely, and build confidence in technology. There is, of course, a quiet irony here: Even as societies prepare for increasingly autonomous AI systems, human trust networks remain essential infrastructure. AI may scale decisions, but resilience still depends on people embedded within communities.

India’s experience suggests preparedness is not a theoretical exercise. It is the cumulative result of investments made years earlier — systems designed for everyday governance that become critical when societies face sudden stress.

India’s digital public infrastructure was not designed with AI disruption in mind, and it still faces significant last-mile challenges. But its underlying philosophy — shared infrastructure serving broad public access — offers a powerful starting point.

Preparing for AI-driven economic change does not require predicting a single technological future. It requires building systems flexible enough to respond to uncertainty. Governments could begin by mapping sectoral exposure to automation, stress testing fiscal assumptions under different labour scenarios, and strengthening delivery infrastructure that can scale quickly. For India, this could mean building on its digital public infrastructure to develop explicit AI economic preparedness frameworks. It could also involve piloting state-level transition strategies and sharing lessons with other emerging economies facing similar transitions. Emerging initiatives like Windfall Trust’s scenario workshops are beginning to map what preparedness might require, bringing together technologists, economists, and policymakers to stress-test assumptions. This kind of cross-disciplinary planning needs to scale rapidly.

The real test of the AI era may not be technological capability alone. It may be whether societies build institutions capable of ensuring technological change strengthens opportunity rather than concentrates risk.

Preparedness, ultimately, is not about predicting the future. It is about deciding — before pressure mounts — what kind of economy and society technological progress should serve.

Osama Manzar is the founder of oDelhi-based Digital Empowerment Foundation, working towards empowering people to gain better access to better healthcare, education and skills through digital literacy. Adrian Brown is CEO of Windfall Trust, a policy accelerator focused on the economic impacts of transformative AI